On Sunday, walking around Reeves Bog in the unseasonably warm weather (otherwise known as "hot"), my informant made a prediction: "As soon as that cold front pushes through on Tuesday, the swans will be back at Whitesbog." That seemed to me a little early, but I haven't been going to Whitebog for 50+ years like him.
And of course, he was right. This morning, Union Pond (the only water available to them) had 6 Tundra Swans in it, 5 adults and one immature. Yesterday my friend said that there had been two. While Whitesbog is the best place to see Tundra Swans close up, it doesn't necessarily get the biggest numbers (Reeves gets a good number, as does Franklin Parker Preserve), and this year, with the Middle Bog still in a muddy state, there just isn't enough room for the big flocks that I was seeing a few years ago. Looking at my old lists, I see that I once had 101 birds there, and flocks of 60 to 80 were the norm. Back in the day, I'm told, the numbers were closer to 200. The last couple of years 20 to 40 has been the expected range. Hard to speculate as to why the numbers have decreased; most of the birds fly farther south and spend the winter on Chesapeake Bay, so our population fluctuation may be a blip in the numbers.
However, a couple of years ago, one of the Burlco birders noted that immatures were scarce and since then we've been keeping an informal eye out for the grayish swans. It is possible that the birds that head to New Jersey have not been having successful breeding seasons and so there are fewer adults to make the cross-country trip.
On the one hand, it's good to have these birds back; on the other, that's another signal that I better get used to being cold.
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